Tips, news and the whats-going-ons that might help you win!
May 15, 2008 11:39 AM
Here is the news from TWOP Tech on the schedule for the end of the TV Bigshot Season:
The
official rules state that the game is over at the end of June 1. So
this means that the final viewing points will be awarded on Wednesday,
May 28 or Thursday, May 29 (depending on whether there's a delay due to
Memorial Day, which will be confirmed in advance). The final magazine
points will be awarded Saturday, May 31. After June 1, some due
diligience will be conducted and then the winner of the grand prize
will be officially confirmed.That means that this is the last week of setting up your Sunday lineups for viewing points, so make it count!
Thursday, May 22 is the last night of the May "sweeps" period and is the unofficial end of the broadcast season (although the season technically runs an entire year from Sept-Sept). From that night on be prepared for "Summer" programming.
Here are
the finales I am tracking, although I readily admit that I could have missed some.
Boston Legal (ABC), May 21
Dancing With The Stars (ABC), May 20
Grey's Anatomy (ABC), May 22
Big Bang Theory (CBS), May 19
Criminal Minds (CBS), May 21
CSI:Miami (CBS), May 19
CSI:NY (CBS), May 21
How I Met Your Mother (CBS), May 19
NCIS (CBS), May 20
Rules of Engagement (CBS), May 19
Shark (CBS), May 20
Two And A Half Men (CBS), May 19
Gossip Girl (CW), May 19
One Tree Hill (CW), May 19
Reaper (CW), May 19
American Idol (Fox), May 21
Bones (Fox), May 19
House (Fox), May 19
Law & Order (NBC), May 21
Finales of reality shows like
American Idol are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows
they are often less so.
Watching the
Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities, particularly on Thursday.
Monday 5/19: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners,
Dancing With The Stars, House & CSI:Miami]
Upside:
- Bachelorette follows Dancing With The Stars in its premiere, a good deal at $60m.
- House could be on the comeback trail it did a preliminary HH 9.0 this week, a good value at $83m.
Downside:
- American Gladiators was crushed this week and still hasn't repriced, a bad deal at $44m.
Tuesday 5/20: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners,
American Idol, Dancing With The Stars x2]
Upside:
- The American Idol finale (officially Tues & Wednesday) has upside at $133m.
- Likewise, Hell's Kitchen is likely to get a bump from Idol.
- Dancing With the Stars finale has upside at $107m.
Downside:
- NCIS, Shark and Reaper likely get pushed lower by the reality finales.
Wednesday 5/21: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners,
American Idol x2,
CSI:NY]
Upside:
- American Idol see above.
- CSI:NY did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, a good value at $76m.
Downside:
- Criminal Minds vs. Idol finale, bad deal.
- Law & Order is dwindling away this spring, let it go at $60m.
Thursday 5/22: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners,
Ugly Betty, Grey's Anatomy x2]
Upside:
- Ugly Betty & Grey's Anatomy seem set to dominate the night.
Downside:
- Deal or No Deal, So You Think You Can Dance, Last Comic Standing seem like losers tonight.
Friday 5/23: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Grey's repeat and Numb3rs
]
Friday Night Smackdown is the only new show you can buy, a stable bet with little upside.
Saturday 5/24:America's Most Wanted is the only new show you can buy, but vs. the NBA Playoffs could be a loser.
Sunday 5/25: [Likely timeslot bonus points ?]
Not a single new episode, it must be Summer!
After your lineup is set on Monday AM, all you need do is coast to the finish line!
Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.comAgree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us
here.
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
May 13, 2008 3:22 PM
The Weekly Results by Network are posted for the week of May 5-11.
Here is the news from TWOP Tech on the schedule for the end of the TV Bigshot Season:
The official rules state that the game is over at the end of June 1. So this means that the final viewing points will be awarded on Wednesday, May 28 or Thursday, May 29 (depending on whether there's a delay due to Memorial Day, which will be confirmed in advance). The final magazine points will be awarded Saturday, May 31. After June 1, some due diligience will be conducted and then the winner of the grand prize will be officially confirmed.
That means that this Wednesday mornings price reset is the last one you can use to increase your budget for use in the game, and this Sunday nights lineup will be the last lineup that will count for viewing points.
Here are a few trades to take advantage of price changes coming Wednesday morning. This list is not comprehensive, I'm simply listing a couple shows from each network. Use the reference links to research your own line up. And, as always, I am often wrong, but open to correction!
SELL
- Desperate Housewives for $108m, going to $97m
- NCIS for $94m, going to $89m
- American Idol for $141m, going to $132m
- House for $88m, going to $83m
- Law & Order: SVU for $82m, going to $70m
- Office for $47m, going to $46m [Edit: I had the numbers mistakenly reversed. Thanks to alert reader Joslyn!]
BUY
Remember, these shows need be held only until after the price change on Wednesday morning.
Coming Thursday: Tips for Sunday night lineups.
Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com
Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
May 9, 2008 12:43 PM
TV Guide: DWTS
EW = n/a
People = Desperate Housewives
US = n/a
Time = n/a
Newsweek = n/a
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
May 8, 2008 11:52 AM
Show
season finales continue. Here are the ones I have for May 12-18, but I'll be the first to admit that I don't track finales as closely,
so I could definitely have missed some:
America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC), May 16
Samantha Who? (ABC), May 12
The Bachelor (ABC), May 12
Women's Murder Club (ABC), May 13
America's Top Model (CW), May 14
Beauty and the Geek (CW), May 13
Law & Order: SVU (NBC), May 13
Medium (NBC), May 12
And
American Gladiators returns for NBC on May 12.
Finales of reality shows like
Survivor are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows
they are often no big deal.
Once again, timeslot bonus points may make the diference between a good buy and a bad one.
Watching the
Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities, particularly on Thursday.
Monday 5/12: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars & CSI:Miami]
Upside:
- Samantha Who? did a preliminary HH 7.1 this week, a good value at $66m.
- Two and A Half Men did a preliminary HH 8.5 this week, a good value at $79m.
- I like The Bachelor season finale to outearn its $51m price.
Downside:
- American Gladiators was trending downward when it's strike assisted run ended in February. No way does it come back above that level vs. real competition.
- Bones did a preliminary HH 5.1 this week, no longer a buy at $60m.
- House did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, still not a good deal at $88m.
Tuesday 5/13: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Law & Order:SVU]
Upside:
- Women's Murder Club did a preliminary HH 6.1 this week, a good value at $55m.
Downside:
- NCIS did a preliminary HH 8.8 this week, not a buy at $94m.
- Law & Order: SVU did a preliminary HH 7.0 this week, not a buy at $82m.
Wednesday 5/14: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Deal or No Deal, American Idol, CSI:NY]
Upside:
- Wife Swap did a preliminary HH 4.6 this week, a good value at $41m.
- CSI:NY did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, a good value at $76m.
Downside:
- Law & Order is limping to the end of the season, doing a preliminary HH 6.0 this week, not a buy at $66m.
Thursday 5/15: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, ?, CSI, Without a Trace]
I don't see any obvious upside or downside tonight, but do note that
My Name is Earl and
The Office have one hour [instead of 30 min] shows tonight. I'm not sure though whether that helps their numbers or hurts them.
Friday 5/16: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs
]
Upside:
- Again, I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep, as they did last week.
Saturday 5/17:Upside:
- The only new shows to buy tonight are Cops and America's Most Wanted and you want to have both of them.
Sunday 5/18: [Likely timeslot bonus points ?, Desperate Housewives]
CBS has the
Academy of Country Music Awards from 8-11pm tonight. Last year's
AOCMA did a HH 6.1 and 9.3 million viewers. I think that
Desperate Housewives will still win its timeslot, but I think its results will suffer. I think every other show's results will likely suffer too.
Remember,
these shows need be held only until Monday morning.
Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.comAgree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us
here.
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
May 6, 2008 1:01 PM
The Weekly Results by Network are posted for the week of April 28 - May 4.
Here are a few trades to take advantage of price changes coming Wednesday morning. This list is not comprehensive, I'm simply listing a couple shows from each network. Use the reference links to research your own line up. And, as always, I am often wrong, but open to correction!
SELL
- Grey's Anatomy for $107m, going to $102m
- Lost for $74m, going to $67m
- Two and A Half Men for $83m, going to $79m
- Without A Trace for $92m, going to $87m
- Friday Night Smackdown for $24m, going to $22m
- House for $135m, going to $88m
- Family Guy for $53m, going to $47m
- Law & Order for $84m, going to $66m
- Deal or No Deal for $64m, going to $57m
BUY
- Desperate Housewives for $103m, going to $108m
- Extreme Makeover: Home Edition for $60m, going to $70m
- CSI for $106m, going to $111m
- NCIS for $91m, going to $94m
- Smallville for $22m, going to $24m
- Hell's Kitchen for $65m, going to $69m
- Bones for $55m, going to $60m
- My Name is Earl for $40m, going to $44m
- Scrubs for $35m, going to $38m
Remember, these shows need be held only until after the price change on Wednesday morning.
Coming Thursday: Tips for Sunday night lineups.
Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com
Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
May 4, 2008 3:18 PM
TV Guide: Grey's Anatomy, Ghost Whisperer
EW: Grey's Anatomy
People: Grey's Anatomy
US: n/a
Newsweek: n/a
Time: Oprah's Big Give
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
April 30, 2008 2:16 PM
For the first time in quite a while, there are no shows bringing back new episodes. We've got what we're going to get for the rest of the season. Consequently, there are likely fewer big obvious moves for the remainder of the season. In fact, I had a hard time finding both clear upside and downside for many shows this week.
With shows not moving much, timeslot bonus points may make the diference between a good buy and a bad one.
In some cases, watching the
Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities.
Season finales are beginning, for May 5-11 I know of
Scrubs,
30 Rock and
Survivor, but I'll be the first to admit that I don't track finales as closely, so I could definitely have missed some. Finales of reality shows like Survivor are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows they are often no big deal.
Monday 5/5: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars & CSI:Miami]
Upside:
- Bones did a preliminary HH 6.0 this week, it's a deal at $55m.
Downside:
- House did a preliminary HH 8.8 in its return this week, stay far away at $135m. But I'd expect it to recover after it resets its price, so be ready to come back ;)
Tuesday 5/6: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Law & Order:SVU]
Upside:
- Hell's Kitchen is on a roll, it did a preliminary HH 7.2 this week, buy it for $65m.
Downside:
- Shark returned with a preliminary 6.8 this week, still not a good deal at $71m.
Wednesday 5/7: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Deal or No Deal, American Idol, CSI:NY]
Upside:
Downside:
- All 3 shows at 10pm did much worse than their pricing on 4/30, CSI:NY (HH 7.5) , Law & Order (HH 6.5) and Boston Legal (HH 5.0). In their cases, the trend is likely not your friend.
Thursday 5/8: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Survivor, CSI, Without a Trace]
No obvious upside or downside I can see at this point other than timeslot bonus points. Although note that it is the season finale for both
Scrubs and
30 Rock.
Friday 5/9: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs
]
Upside:
- Again, I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep, as they did last week.
Saturday 5/10:There are no new episodes of buyable shows for Saturday.
Sunday 5/11: [Likely timeslot bonus points Survivor:Micronesia, Desperate Housewives, Survivor:Reunion]
Upside:
- The Survivor:Micronesia finale addtion to Sunday scrambles things. I like Survivor for the week, and consequently don't like any of the other regular Sunday shows.
Remember,
these shows need be held only until Monday morning.
Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.comAgree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us
here.
Posted by Bill Gorman | Permalink
