Advice for March 31 - April 6: CBS Blockbusters Return

March 27, 2008 12:47 AM

CBS brings back many of its blockbuster shows next week, and they will certainly disrupt the recent ratings patterns. Here are the show debuts & initial fresh episodes arriving for the week of March 31 - April 6:

• Duel (ABC), April 4
• Criminal Minds (CBS), April 2
• CSI (CBS), April 3
• CSI:NY (CBS), April 2
• Ghost Whisperer (CBS), April 4
• NUMB3RS (CBS), April 4
• Without A Trace (CBS), April 3
• Hell's Kitchen (Fox), April 1
• My Name is Earl (NBC), April 3
  

Monday 3/31:
Upside:

• I was wrong about CSI:Miami, it did a 10.2 on 3/24, buying it for next week at $97m now seems like a good idea!
  

Downside:

• Dancing With the Stars did a 12.7 rating on 3/24 vs. 13.3 the week before. I see continuing erosion.
  
• How I Met Your Mother with Britney Spears did a 6.3 rating and will pay off big this week, but Spears is gone next week and it's certain to fall.
• New Amsterdam did a 3.9 on 3/24, it's poison at $45m.
• Medium did a 5.7 on 3/24, stay away at $64m.
  

Tuesday 4/1:
Upside:

• American Idol weakened considerably to a 14.3 on 3/25, but at $153m was still a breakeven with 10 bonus points assuming similar performance on Wednesday.
  
• Hells Kitchen returns with a new episode immediately after Idol. Take it to the bank.
  

Wednesday 4/2:
Upside:

• After the upside performance of CSI:Miami this week, I'd go with the trend and take the new episode returns of Criminal Minds and CSI:NY.
  

Downside:

• Supernanny has got to suffer vs. a new Criminal Minds.
  
• Men in Trees looks to fall vs. a new CSI:NY.

Thursday 4/3:
Upside:

• Now that I've jumped on the CBS new show bandwagon, I might as well put the pedal to the metal and take both CSI and Without A Trace. They'll be picking up timeslot bonuses at a minimum.
  

Downside:

• My gut tells me that the new episode return of My Name is Earl will not do a 4.8 vs. Survivor: Micronesia.
• Against both a new Earl and CSI, Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader? looks to get crushed.
• Ditto for Eli Stone vs. Without A Trace.
  

Friday 4/4:
Upside:

• I like the returns of Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs to be worth their purchase prices considering the near guaranteed 5 bonus points each.
  

Downside:

• Canterbury's Law last did a 3.6 on a Monday, I can't see that going up on a Friday, even following a rerun of Bones.
• The Duel premiere will only cost you $42m, but I still don't think it's worth it.
  

Saturday 4/5:
Downside:

• America's Most Wanted goes up against the NCAA Final Four and Harry Potter. Take a pass.
  

Sunday 4/6:
Upside:
My apologies in forgetting last Sunday was Easter and recommending anything. There was plenty of pain for any purchasers, sorry.

• Cold Case looks to recover post bunny.
  

Downside:

• Even without colored eggs, a rerun lead in would keep me away from Oprah's Big Give.
  

Remember, these shows need be held only until Monday morning.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

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