Weekly Advice For May 5-11, Less Of The Obvious

April 30, 2008 2:16 PM

For the first time in quite a while, there are no shows bringing back new episodes. We've got what we're going to get for the rest of the season. Consequently, there are likely fewer big obvious moves for the remainder of the season. In fact, I had a hard time finding both clear upside and downside for many shows this week.

With shows not moving much, timeslot bonus points may make the diference between a good buy and a bad one.

In some cases, watching the Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities.

Season finales are beginning, for May 5-11 I know of Scrubs, 30 Rock and Survivor,  but I'll be the first to admit that I don't track finales as closely, so I could definitely have missed some. Finales of reality shows like Survivor are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows they are often no big deal.

Monday 5/5: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars & CSI:Miami]
Upside:

• Bones did a preliminary HH 6.0 this week, it's a deal at $55m.

Downside:

• House did a preliminary HH 8.8 in its return this week, stay far away at $135m. But I'd expect it to recover after it resets its price, so be ready to come back ;)
  

Tuesday 5/6: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Law & Order:SVU]
Upside:

• Hell's Kitchen is on a roll, it did a preliminary HH 7.2 this week, buy it for $65m.
  

Downside:

• Shark returned with a preliminary 6.8 this week, still not a good deal at $71m.
  

Wednesday 5/7: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Deal or No Deal, American Idol, CSI:NY]
Upside:

• None

Downside:

• All 3 shows at 10pm did much worse than their pricing on 4/30,  CSI:NY (HH 7.5) , Law & Order (HH 6.5) and Boston Legal (HH 5.0). In their cases, the trend is likely not your friend.
  

Thursday 5/8: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Survivor, CSI, Without a Trace]
No obvious upside or downside I can see at this point other than timeslot bonus points. Although note that it is the season finale for both Scrubs and 30 Rock.

Friday 5/9: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs ]
Upside:

• Again, I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep, as they did last week.
  

Saturday 5/10:
There are no new episodes of buyable shows for Saturday.

Sunday 5/11: [Likely timeslot bonus points Survivor:Micronesia, Desperate Housewives, Survivor:Reunion]
Upside:

• The Survivor:Micronesia finale addtion to Sunday scrambles things. I like Survivor for the week, and consequently don't like any of the other regular Sunday shows.
  

Remember, these shows need be held only until Monday morning.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

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