Advice for May 12-18, The End Approaches

May 8, 2008 11:52 AM

Show season finales continue. Here are the ones I have for May 12-18, but I'll be the first to admit that I don't track finales as closely, so I could definitely have missed some:

America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC), May 16
Samantha Who? (ABC), May 12
The Bachelor (ABC), May 12
Women's Murder Club (ABC), May 13
America's Top Model (CW), May 14
Beauty and the Geek (CW), May 13
Law & Order: SVU (NBC), May 13
Medium (NBC), May 12

And American Gladiators returns for NBC on May 12.

Finales of reality shows like Survivor are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows they are often no big deal.

Once again, timeslot bonus points may make the diference between a good buy and a bad one.

Watching the Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities, particularly on Thursday.

Monday 5/12: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars & CSI:Miami]
Upside:

• Samantha Who? did a preliminary HH 7.1 this week, a good value at $66m.
• Two and A Half Men did a preliminary HH 8.5 this week, a good value at $79m.
• I like The Bachelor season finale to outearn its $51m price.
  

Downside:

• American Gladiators was trending downward when it's strike assisted run ended in February. No way does it come back above that level vs. real competition.
• Bones did a preliminary HH 5.1 this week, no longer a buy at $60m.
• House did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, still not a good deal at $88m.
  

Tuesday 5/13: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Law & Order:SVU]
Upside:

• Women's Murder Club did a preliminary HH 6.1 this week, a good value at $55m.

Downside:

• NCIS did a preliminary HH 8.8 this week, not a buy at $94m.
• Law & Order: SVU did a preliminary HH 7.0 this week, not a buy at $82m.

Wednesday 5/14: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Deal or No Deal, American Idol, CSI:NY]
Upside:

• Wife Swap did a preliminary HH 4.6 this week, a good value at $41m.
• CSI:NY did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, a good value at $76m.

Downside:

• Law & Order is limping to the end of the season, doing a preliminary HH 6.0 this week, not a buy at $66m.

Thursday 5/15: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, ?, CSI, Without a Trace]
I don't see any obvious upside or downside tonight, but do note that My Name is Earl and The Office have one hour [instead of 30 min] shows tonight. I'm not sure though whether that helps their numbers or hurts them.

Friday 5/16: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs ]
Upside:

• Again, I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep, as they did last week.
  

Saturday 5/17:
Upside:

• The only new shows to buy tonight are Cops and America's Most Wanted and you want to have both of them.

Sunday 5/18: [Likely timeslot bonus points ?, Desperate Housewives]
CBS has the Academy of Country Music Awards from 8-11pm tonight. Last year's AOCMA did a HH 6.1 and 9.3 million viewers. I think that Desperate Housewives will still win its timeslot, but I think its results will suffer. I think every other show's results will likely suffer too.

Remember, these shows need be held only until Monday morning.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

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