The TV Bigshot Blog

Magazine Bonus Points: Idol, Dancing, Betty

2008-05-16T16:17:46Z

TV Guide = Idol, DWTS, Ugly Betty

EW = n/a

People = n/a

US = n/a

Time = n/a

Newsweek = n/a

Advice For May 19-25, The Finish Line

2008-05-15T15:39:58Z

Here is the news from TWOP Tech on the schedule for the end of the TV Bigshot Season:

The official rules state that the game is over at the end of June 1. So this means that the final viewing points will be awarded on Wednesday, May 28 or Thursday, May 29 (depending on whether there's a delay due to Memorial Day, which will be confirmed in advance). The final magazine points will be awarded Saturday, May 31. After June 1, some due diligience will be conducted and then the winner of the grand prize will be officially confirmed.

That means that this is the last week of setting up your Sunday lineups for viewing points, so make it count!

Thursday, May 22 is the last night of the May "sweeps" period and is the unofficial end of the broadcast season (although the season technically runs an entire year from Sept-Sept). From that night on be prepared for "Summer" programming.

Here are the finales I am tracking, although I readily admit that I could have missed some.

Boston Legal (ABC), May 21
Dancing With The Stars (ABC), May 20
Grey's Anatomy (ABC), May 22
Big Bang Theory (CBS), May 19
Criminal Minds (CBS), May 21
CSI:Miami (CBS), May 19
CSI:NY (CBS), May 21
How I Met Your Mother (CBS), May 19
NCIS (CBS), May 20
Rules of Engagement (CBS), May 19
Shark (CBS), May 20
Two And A Half Men (CBS), May 19
Gossip Girl (CW), May 19
One Tree Hill (CW), May 19
Reaper (CW), May 19
American Idol (Fox), May 21
Bones (Fox), May 19
House (Fox), May 19
Law & Order (NBC), May 21

Finales of reality shows like American Idol are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows they are often less so.

Watching the Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities, particularly on Thursday.

Monday 5/19: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars, House & CSI:Miami]
Upside:

Bachelorette follows Dancing With The Stars in its premiere, a good deal at $60m.
House could be on the comeback trail it did a preliminary HH 9.0 this week, a good value at $83m.

Downside:

American Gladiators was crushed this week and still hasn't repriced, a bad deal at $44m.

Tuesday 5/20: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars x2]
Upside:

The American Idol finale (officially Tues & Wednesday) has upside at $133m.
Likewise, Hell's Kitchen is likely to get a bump from Idol.
Dancing With the Stars finale has upside at $107m.

Downside:

NCIS, Shark and Reaper likely get pushed lower by the reality finales.

Wednesday 5/21: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol x2, CSI:NY]
Upside:

American Idol see above.
CSI:NY did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, a good value at $76m.

Downside:

Criminal Minds vs. Idol finale, bad deal.
Law & Order is dwindling away this spring, let it go at $60m.

Thursday 5/22: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ugly Betty, Grey's Anatomy x2]
Upside:

Ugly Betty & Grey's Anatomy seem set to dominate the night.

Downside:

Deal or No Deal, So You Think You Can Dance, Last Comic Standing seem like losers tonight.

Friday 5/23: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Grey's repeat and Numb3rs ]
Friday Night Smackdown is the only new show you can buy, a stable bet with little upside.

Saturday 5/24:
America's Most Wanted is the only new show you can buy, but vs. the NBA Playoffs could be a loser.

Sunday 5/25: [Likely timeslot bonus points ?]
Not a single new episode, it must be Summer!

After your lineup is set on Monday AM, all you need do is coast to the finish line!

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.

Weekly Results for May 5-11

2008-05-13T19:22:32Z

The Weekly Results by Network are posted for the week of May 5-11.

That means that this Wednesday mornings price reset is the last one you can use to increase your budget for use in the game, and this Sunday nights lineup will be the last lineup that will count for viewing points.

Here are a few trades to take advantage of price changes coming Wednesday morning. This list is not comprehensive, I'm simply listing a couple shows from each network. Use the reference links to research your own line up. And, as always, I am often wrong, but open to correction!

SELL

Desperate Housewives for $108m, going to $97m
NCIS for $94m, going to $89m
American Idol for $141m, going to $132m
House for $88m, going to $83m
Law & Order: SVU for $82m, going to $70m
Office for $47m, going to $46m [Edit: I had the numbers mistakenly reversed. Thanks to alert reader Joslyn!]

BUY

Wife Swap for $41m, going to $46m
Without a Trace for $87m going to $98m
Friday Night Smackdown for $22m, going to $24m

Remember, these shows need be held only until after the price change on Wednesday morning.

Coming Thursday: Tips for Sunday night lineups.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.

Magazine Bonus Points: Dancing/Desperate

2008-05-09T16:43:19Z

TV Guide: DWTS

EW = n/a

People = Desperate Housewives

US = n/a

Time = n/a

Newsweek = n/a

Advice for May 12-18, The End Approaches

2008-05-08T15:52:04Z

Show season finales continue. Here are the ones I have for May 12-18, but I'll be the first to admit that I don't track finales as closely, so I could definitely have missed some:

America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC), May 16
Samantha Who? (ABC), May 12
The Bachelor (ABC), May 12
Women's Murder Club (ABC), May 13
America's Top Model (CW), May 14
Beauty and the Geek (CW), May 13
Law & Order: SVU (NBC), May 13
Medium (NBC), May 12

And American Gladiators returns for NBC on May 12.

Finales of reality shows like Survivor are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows they are often no big deal.

Once again, timeslot bonus points may make the diference between a good buy and a bad one.

Watching the Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities, particularly on Thursday.

Monday 5/12: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars & CSI:Miami]
Upside:

Samantha Who? did a preliminary HH 7.1 this week, a good value at $66m.
Two and A Half Men did a preliminary HH 8.5 this week, a good value at $79m.
I like The Bachelor season finale to outearn its $51m price.

Downside:

American Gladiators was trending downward when it's strike assisted run ended in February. No way does it come back above that level vs. real competition.
Bones did a preliminary HH 5.1 this week, no longer a buy at $60m.
House did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, still not a good deal at $88m.

Tuesday 5/13: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Law & Order:SVU]
Upside:

Women's Murder Club did a preliminary HH 6.1 this week, a good value at $55m.

Downside:

NCIS did a preliminary HH 8.8 this week, not a buy at $94m.
Law & Order: SVU did a preliminary HH 7.0 this week, not a buy at $82m.

Wednesday 5/14: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Deal or No Deal, American Idol, CSI:NY]
Upside:

Wife Swap did a preliminary HH 4.6 this week, a good value at $41m.
CSI:NY did a preliminary HH 8.2 this week, a good value at $76m.

Downside:

Law & Order is limping to the end of the season, doing a preliminary HH 6.0 this week, not a buy at $66m.

Thursday 5/15: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, ?, CSI, Without a Trace]
I don't see any obvious upside or downside tonight, but do note that My Name is Earl and The Office have one hour [instead of 30 min] shows tonight. I'm not sure though whether that helps their numbers or hurts them.

Friday 5/16: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs ]
Upside:

Again, I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep, as they did last week.

Saturday 5/17:
Upside:

The only new shows to buy tonight are Cops and America's Most Wanted and you want to have both of them.

Sunday 5/18: [Likely timeslot bonus points ?, Desperate Housewives]
CBS has the Academy of Country Music Awards from 8-11pm tonight. Last year's AOCMA did a HH 6.1 and 9.3 million viewers. I think that Desperate Housewives will still win its timeslot, but I think its results will suffer. I think every other show's results will likely suffer too.

Remember, these shows need be held only until Monday morning.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.

Weekly Results For April 28 - May 4

2008-05-06T17:01:42Z

The Weekly Results by Network are posted for the week of April 28 - May 4.

Grey's Anatomy for $107m, going to $102m
Lost for $74m, going to $67m
Two and A Half Men for $83m, going to $79m
Without A Trace for $92m, going to $87m
Friday Night Smackdown for $24m, going to $22m
House for $135m, going to $88m
Family Guy for $53m, going to $47m
Law & Order for $84m, going to $66m
Deal or No Deal for $64m, going to $57m

BUY

Desperate Housewives for $103m, going to $108m
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition for $60m, going to $70m
CSI for $106m, going to $111m
NCIS for $91m, going to $94m
Smallville for $22m, going to $24m
Hell's Kitchen for $65m, going to $69m
Bones for $55m, going to $60m
My Name is Earl for $40m, going to $44m
Scrubs for $35m, going to $38m

Magazine Bonus Points, 3xGrey's

2008-05-04T19:18:47Z

TV Guide: Grey's Anatomy, Ghost Whisperer

EW: Grey's Anatomy

People: Grey's Anatomy

US: n/a

Newsweek: n/a

Time: Oprah's Big Give

Weekly Advice For May 5-11, Less Of The Obvious

2008-04-30T18:16:12Z

For the first time in quite a while, there are no shows bringing back new episodes. We've got what we're going to get for the rest of the season. Consequently, there are likely fewer big obvious moves for the remainder of the season. In fact, I had a hard time finding both clear upside and downside for many shows this week.

With shows not moving much, timeslot bonus points may make the diference between a good buy and a bad one.

In some cases, watching the Overnight Results for Thursday and Friday (out after I write this) might find you some more opportunities.

Season finales are beginning, for May 5-11 I know of Scrubs, 30 Rock and Survivor, but I'll be the first to admit that I don't track finales as closely, so I could definitely have missed some. Finales of reality shows like Survivor are often significant upside opportunities, for scripted shows they are often no big deal.

Monday 5/5: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Dancing With The Stars & CSI:Miami]
Upside:

Bones did a preliminary HH 6.0 this week, it's a deal at $55m.

Downside:

House did a preliminary HH 8.8 in its return this week, stay far away at $135m. But I'd expect it to recover after it resets its price, so be ready to come back ;)

Tuesday 5/6: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Law & Order:SVU]
Upside:

Hell's Kitchen is on a roll, it did a preliminary HH 7.2 this week, buy it for $65m.

Downside:

Shark returned with a preliminary 6.8 this week, still not a good deal at $71m.

Wednesday 5/7: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Deal or No Deal, American Idol, CSI:NY]
Upside:

None

Downside:

All 3 shows at 10pm did much worse than their pricing on 4/30, CSI:NY (HH 7.5) , Law & Order (HH 6.5) and Boston Legal (HH 5.0). In their cases, the trend is likely not your friend.

Thursday 5/8: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Survivor, CSI, Without a Trace]
No obvious upside or downside I can see at this point other than timeslot bonus points. Although note that it is the season finale for both Scrubs and 30 Rock.

Friday 5/9: [Likely timeslot bonus points winners, Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs ]
Upside:

Again, I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep, as they did last week.

Saturday 5/10:
There are no new episodes of buyable shows for Saturday.

Sunday 5/11: [Likely timeslot bonus points Survivor:Micronesia, Desperate Housewives, Survivor:Reunion]
Upside:

The Survivor:Micronesia finale addtion to Sunday scrambles things. I like Survivor for the week, and consequently don't like any of the other regular Sunday shows.

Remember, these shows need be held only until Monday morning.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.

Weekly Results for April 21-27

2008-04-29T19:52:49Z

The Weekly Results by Network are posted for the week of April 21-27.

Here are a few trades to take advantage of price changes coming Wednesday morning. This list is not comprehensive, I'm just trying to catch a few shows from each network. Use the reference links to research your own line up. And, as always, I am often wrong, but open to correction!

SELL

Grey's Anatomy for $116m, going to $107m
Supernanny for $40m, going to $37
CSI for $125m, going to $106m
Without A Trace for $97m, going to $92m
Reaper for $18m, going to $15m
Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader? for $57m, going to $52m
Law And Order:SVU for $88m, going to $80m
The Office for $58m, going to $46m
My Name is Earl for $44m, going to $40m

BUY

Dancing With the Stars for $107m, going to $117m
Lost for $70m, going to $74m
Cold Case for $62m, going to $76m
Ghost Whisperer for $53m, going to $57m
America's Next Top Model for $26m, going to $29m
American Idol for $137m, going to $140m
American Dad for $33m, going to $42m
Law and Order for $71m, going to $84m

Come and Get Your Bonus Points! Top 5/Timeslots

2008-04-29T19:01:06Z

TOP 5
American Idol (tuesday)
American Idol (wednesday)
Dancing With The Stars
Dancing With The Stars results
Grey's Anatomy*

TIME SLOTS

Monday
8-9: Dancing With The Stars
9-10: Dancing With The Stars (cont'd)
10-11: CSI Miami

Tuesday
8-9: American Idol
9-10: Dancing With The Stars results
10-11: Law & order SVU

Wednesday
8-9: Deal Or No Deal
9-10: American Idol
10-11: Law & Order

Thursday
8-9: Survivor
9-10: CSI*
10-11: Without a Trace

Friday
8-9: Ghost Whisperer
9-10: Moonlight
10-11: Numb3rs

Saturday
8-9: Cops (rerun)
9-10: America's Most Wanted
10-11: 48 Hours Mystery

Sunday
7-8: 60 Minutes
8-9: Extreme Home Makeover
9-10: Desperate Housewives
10-11: Brothers & Sisters

*How could Grey's Anatomy be Top 5 for the week, but not win its timeslot?

Both CSI and Grey's ran a bit past 10pm that night.

For the 9-10pm hour, CSI won with a 10.66 rating vs. Grey's 10.65.

However, for the 10-11 overrun Grey's had a 13.52 and CSI a 9.51. The overrun doesn't count for the timeslot winning points for TVBS though.

The overrun did boost Grey's overall to 10.74 HH rating while CSI had a 10.64. That's how it could make the top 5 without winning its timeslot.

Feel The Magazine Bonus Point Love

2008-04-25T15:18:24Z

EW: n/a (double issue last week)
TV Guide: NCIS, Lost, Ugly Betty, House, Desperate Housewives, CSI, Private Practice
Us Weekly: n/a
People: The Game
Newsweek: n/a
Time: n/a

Weekly Advice for April 28 - May 4, Sweeps!

2008-04-24T17:37:33Z

The network sweeps period begins tonight (April 24), so by next week every network will be putting its maximum resources to bear until the end of sweeps period on May 21.

Here are the show debuts, initial fresh episodes, and finales for the week of April 28-May 4:

New episodes starting:

Women's Murder Club (ABC), April 29
Shark (CBS), April 29
Farmer Wants a Wife (CW), April 30
House (Fox), April 28

Monday 4/28:
Upside:

Dancing With The Stars did preliminary HH rating of 11.8 and 11.9 this week, it looks a good deal at $107, even vs. House for an 30 minutes on Monday.
Bones did a preliminary 5.8 this week, its a deal at $51m.
Medium did preliminary 6.8 this week, its a buy at $62m.

Downside:

I don't think House comes back with a 12.5 with its first new episode [which +10 bonus points would get you value for $135m], but that's just my gut talking.
Even though I don't think House is a buy, it's still going to hurt all the competition. I'd expect Two and A Half Men, Rules of Engagement and One Tree Hill to get hit. Deal or No Deal likely damaged less, since House only competes with it during 25% of its weekly run.

Tuesday 4/29:
Upside:

Women's Murder Club returns with new episodes after Dancing With the Stars, buy it.
Hell's Kitchen did a preliminary HH 7.0 this week, buy it for $63m.

Downside:

I don't see Shark's return with new episodes worth $71m.

Wednesday 4/30:
Upside:

Law & Order's did a preliminary 9.0 last night, buy it at $71m before it reprices, even though it will face a new CSI:NY next week.

Downside:

~~Speaking of CSI:NY, its last new episode got a HH 12.5, but not vs. a fresh Law & Order, I don't think it's a buy at $125m.~~ I could blame CBS for having 3 CSI's, but it was my own confusion between CSI's price and results, and CSI:NY's schedule postion that lead to this error. - Thanks once again, pretzelgirl!

Thursday 5/1:
Upside:

Grey's Anatomy returns tonight (look at its Overnight Results tommorrow) to see if it's still a buy at $116m for next week.
Do the same with Lost.

Downside:

With no changes on 5/1 vs. 4/24, I don't see any obvious losers, check 4/24 overnight results for buys/sells.

Friday 5/2:
Upside:

I like the entire CBS line up: Ghost Whisperer, Moonlight and Numb3rs for the potential for a timeslot bonus point sweep.

Saturday 5/3:
Upside:

No new episodes to buy tonight.

Sunday 5/4:
Upside:

I like the entire ABC line up [Extreme Makeover:Home Edition, Desperate Housewives, Brothers & Sisters] vs. NBC reruns and 2 episodes of Dexter on CBS. Also, Brothers & Sisters is still at its pre-new episode price of $71 which is a buy following Housewives.

Remember, these shows need be held only until Monday morning.

Cheers,
Bill Gorman
TVbytheNumbers.com

Agree or disagree? Discuss our Bigshot Blog strategies this week with us here.

Weekly Results Are In, It's Budget Time!

2008-04-22T19:37:59Z

The Weekly Results by Network are posted for the week of April 14-20.

Here are a few trades to take advantage of price changes coming Wednesday morning. This list is not comprehensive, I'm just trying to catch some of the big movers. Use the reference links to research your own line up. And, as always, I am often wrong, but open to correction!

SELL

Dancing With the Stars for $120m, going to $107m
Samantha Who? for $73m, going to $64m
How I Met Your Mother for $58m, going to $49m
The Big Bang Theory for $53m, going to $47m
Friday Night Smackdown for $25m, going to $22m
Don't Forget the Lyrics for $66m, going to $57m
Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader? for $62m, going to $56m
'Til Death for $60m, going to $39m
Medium for $70m, going to $62m

BUY

Brothers & Sisters for $57m going to $71m
NCIS for $88m, going to $94m
CSI:NY for $80m, going to $86m
American Idol for $122m, going to $136m
Law & Order:SVU for $84m, going to $88m

Last Week's Top 5 & Timeslot Bonus Points!

2008-04-22T15:23:06Z

TOP 5
American Idol (Tuesday)
American Idol (Wed.)
Dancing With The Stars
Desperate Housewives
Dancing With The Stars (results)

TIME SLOT
Monday
8-9: DWTS
9-10: DWTS (cont'd)
10-11: CSI: Miami (rerun)

Tuesday
8-9: American Idol
9-10: DWTS
10-11: Law & Order SVU

Wednesday
8-9: ABC presidential debate
9-10: American Idol
10-11: CSI New York

Thursday
8-9: Survivor
9-10: CSI (rerun)
10-11: Without a Trace (rerun)

Friday
8-9: Ghost Whisperer (rerun)
9-10: Dateline
10-11: Dateline

Saturday
8-9: ABC movie
9-10: ABC movie
10-11: ABC movie

Sunday
7-8: 60 Minutes
8-9: Big Brother
9-10: Desperate Housewives
10-11: Brothers & Sisters

Magazine Bonus Point Time!

2008-04-18T16:21:29Z

EW: n/a
TV Guide: Law & order SVU; Grey's; Lost; CSI
People: Brothers & Sisters
Us Weekly: n/a
Time: n/a
Newsweek: n/a